Norway Investigates Polymarket Bets on Nobel Peace Prize Winner Amid Suspicious Trading Activity

Norwegian authorities are probing potential leaks after unusual betting patterns on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, appeared to foreshadow the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner. Suspicious activity surged hours before Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was announced as the recipient.

Bloomberg reports that bets favoring Machado spiked abruptly after midnight Norwegian time on Thursday. By the official announcement at 11 a.m. Friday, early traders had already pocketed tens of thousands in profits. Three accounts reportedly gained approximately $90,000, with one anonymous trader "6741" allegedly netting $53,500 after creating a new account just before the surge.

The Nobel Institute confirmed the investigation, with spokesman Erik Aasheim stating, "We're looking into it." The incident raises questions about information integrity in both traditional institutions and decentralized prediction markets.